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Home Opinion Brexit BREXIT – A Historical Act of Faith - 5. A Two-Year Horizon and a Lot of Challenges

BREXIT – A Historical Act of Faith - 5. A Two-Year Horizon and a Lot of Challenges

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Article Index
BREXIT – A Historical Act of Faith
2. Historic Parallels
3. Brexit - A Political Cult?
4. The Triggering of Article 50 Signals the Beginning of a Difficult Journey
5. A Two-Year Horizon and a Lot of Challenges
6. Replacement Trade Agreements and Broader Ramifications
7. A Less Certain Future for the Isle of Man
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5. A Two-Year Horizon and a Lot of Challenges

The UK now has exactly two years to satisfactorily resolve a large number of significant and complex issues, including:

  • Protection of the rights of the 4.4 million citizens living in the UK and EU countries;
  • Agree a mechanism to settle the EU’s divorce bill;
  • Transfer 40 years’ worth of accumulated European laws and regulations into the UK statute books;
  • Establish the basis for new trade deal;
  • Establish a new customs regime;
  • Ensure that funding for universities and other research organizations is preserved;
  • Set up agricultural subsidies;
  • Create a new immigration system, including visa rules for EU nationals;
  • Retain London’s status as a ‘leading global financial’ center;
  • Keep Scotland and Northern Ireland within the UK;
  • Solve the land border issue between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland;
  • Enable UK airlines to ‘bypass’ the EU’s airline location and ownership regulations;
  • Create a new regulatory regime for fishing in UK waters;
  • Manage any potential further falls in the value of British Pound (GBP). The value of the GBP will act as a barometer of the market’s perception of how negotiations are progressing;
  • Retain Gibraltar as British territory;
  • Deliver a good deal for each of the Crown Dependencies;
  • Make contingency plans to deal with a ‘no-deal’ outcome.

It seems unlikely that the UK will reach satisfactory new agreements with the EU on all of these issues within the prescribed two-year time frame. Should this be the case, then the EU negotiators have already indicated that an interim solution would be to offer the UK a transition period that would allow negotiations to continue. During this period, which could last as long as three years, the UK would remain a member of the EU, continue to have tariff free access to the Single Market, continue to make monthly membership payments and still remain subject to the rulings of the European Court of Justice.



 

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